TORONTO - Mayor Rob Ford is hurting -- not helping -- the provincial election campaign of Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak, according to an exclusive new poll.
The survey conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global News says a majority of Torontonians (53%) say they are less likely to vote for the Ontario PC leader because Rob Ford is mayor. Only one in ten (9%) say they're more likely to vote for the PC Party, and 38 per cent say it doesn't impact their vote.
Even among current Tory supporters, just one in five (21%) say that Ford being mayor has made them more likely to vote for Hudak.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, says the amount of voter anger in Ontario is not at the same level as it was at Toronto City Hall during last November's municipal election.
"Ford supporters weren't just about taxes," Bricker says, "they were really about wholesale change."
And while Toronto's leader may be hurting Hudak's momentum, the poll shows NDP leader Andrea Horwath is moving in the opposite direction.
The poll found Horwath has one quarter (24%) of Ontarians have a more favourable view of Horwath since the election campaign officially began on September 7. Over the same period, only 7 per cent have a less favourable view, resulting in a net score of +17.
By comparison, both McGuinty and Hudak are seen less favourably by voters. The Tory leader had a net score of -15 and the Liberal leader was at -12.
Four in ten (37%) also chose Horwath as the party leader they would most like to have over to their home for a barbecue. PC leader Tim Hudak trailed with 32 per cent and current Premier Dalton McGuinty was picked by 31 per cent.
Bricker says that, while Horwath is unlikely to win the election, she still has the potential to be a real spoiler.
"She has an opportunity to re-introduce herself to Ontario voters and there's a real potential she could make a connection," Bricker says.
The poll also reminds us that there is still ample time for impressions to change.
A majority (55%) of respondents say they'll pay closer attention to the campaign around next Tuesday's debate and closer to election day. Only one-third (35%) say they're paying close attention right now.
For this survey, a sample of 8,391 Ontarians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online between September 16 and 20, 2011. It has an estimated margin of error of +/- 1.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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