According to a new poll by Ipsos Reid, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals could be in a position to form a third majority government in Ontario.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global News, shows Liberal support at 41 per cent of decided voters, ten points ahead of the Progressive Conservatives at 31 per cent. NDP support is at 25 per cent. Six per cent of voters are undecided.
At the same time, Global News election analyst Barry Kay says that his most recent Ontario seat projection suggests a fairly strong Liberal minority. Based on a blending of polls from September 28th-Oct 3rd, Dr. Kay's projection model produces a seat distribution of Liberals 54, Conservatives 32, and NDP 21. "In other words the Liberals are on the cusp of a majority" said Kay.
Ipsos Reid’s polling numbers showed the PC party ahead in July, at 42 per cent compared to the Liberals’ 31 per cent. When the election was called in September, the two parties were neck-and-neck, at 37 per cent for the PCs and 38 per cent for the Liberals. Over the course of the campaign, PC support continued to drop.
This slide in PC support was due to a campaign that focused too much on taxes, said Wright.
“People didn’t really see the issue of taxes as being the one thing that was important. Jobs and the economy were important but not taxes.”
Most Canadians have a positive outlook on the economy, he said, and Canada is recognized internationally for its relative economic strength. So, focusing on taxes was a mistake.
“They could have talked about the value of taxpayers’ money instead of taxes,” he said. “The second thing is they could have talked about a stable government, and an optimism about the future and that they’ve run up a deficit and now is the time for sturdy hands to come forward and take it to the next level where they could cement the opportunity for Ontario to succeed. They didn’t touch any of that stuff.”
“They didn’t really talk about anything other than McGuinty is going to tax you and we won’t. Well, it’s not much of a ballot question.”
Wright also thinks that the Liberals have run a good campaign by both acknowledging their mistakes in government and pointing to their accomplishments.
Other polls show the Liberals ahead as well, but generally not by the margins seen in the Ipsos Reid poll. An Ekos poll conducted from Oct. 2-3 also showed the Liberals ahead at 39.1 per cent to the PC party’s 29.1 per cent. A Nanos Reasearch poll from October 1 to 3 shows the Liberals at 37.7 per cent and the PC party at 33 per cent. A Forum Research poll showed that the Liberals and the PCs would win the same number of seats.
“The Tories are not going to win,” said Wright. “This campaign is all but finished. People have pretty much made up their minds. And I think we’re just going to have to wait another 48 hours to see whether it’s a majority or whether it’s a significantly large minority.”
The Ipsos Reid poll sampled 1020 adults in Ontario by telephone. The results are considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Ekos poll sampled 1166 people using interactive voice response technology and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Nanos poll is considered accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Forum Research poll used interactive voice response technology and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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